With WWDC announced for June 6th, I thought it would make a fun thought exercise and try to speculate what models Apple will plan to drop with macOS 13.

For this, we should look over the recent history of models dropped to see what are Apple’s tolerance for the year to year model support:

With regards to my logic, Apple generally will decide to kill a unit based on the last time the unit was officially sold by them and not when the unit first released.

Hardware Dropped: Mojave

In one of the largest massacres in recent memory for Mac hardware, all machines without Metal graphics were dropped. While an artificial limitation, Apple had proper merits as to why they needed to drop these models.

  • Oldest Sold: MacBook6,1 - Mid 2010
  • Newest Sold: Macmini5,x - Late 2012
Model Year Released Year Discontinued
MacBook6,1 Late 2009 Mid 2010
MacBook7,1 Mid 2010 Early 2012
MacBookAir3,x Late 2010 Mid 2011
MacBookAir4,x Mid 2011 Mid 2012
MacBookPro6,x Mid 2010 Early 2011
MacBookPro7,1 Mid 2010 Early 2011
MacBookPro8,x Early 2011 Mid 2012
iMac10,1 Late 2009 Mid 2010
iMac11,x Late 2009 Mid 2011
iMac12,x Mid 2011 Late 2012
Macmini4,1 Mid 2010 Mid 2011
Macmini5,x Mid 2011 Late 2012

Hardware Dropped: Catalina

Overall quite a boring year, with only 1 model discontinued however a quite beloved model:

  • Oldest Sold: MacPro5,1 - Late 2013
  • Newest Sold: MacPro5,1 - Late 2013
Model Year Released Year Discontinued
MacPro5,1 Mid 2010 Late 2013

Hardware Dropped: Big Sur

This year, Apple introduced the plan to move to Apple Silicon which was the first major hardware drop since the death of all non-Metal machines back in WWDC2018 with macOS Mojave.

  • Oldest Sold: MacBookAir5,x - Mid 2013
  • Newest Sold: MacBookPro9,2 - Late 2016
    • A bit of an outlier, Late 2014 is more appropriate
Model Year Released Year Discontinued
Macmini6,x Late 2012 Late 2014
MacBookAir5,x Mid 2012 Mid 2013
MacBookPro9,1 Mid 2012 Late 2013
MacBookPro9,2 Mid 2012 Late 2016
MacBookPro10,x Late 2012 Late 2013
iMac13,x Late 2012 Late 2013
iMac14,x Late 2013 Mid 2014

Hardware Dropped: Monterey

While a modest year for changes overall compared to Big Sur, Apple continued to drop more hardware fairly quickly. This shows we should no longer expect grace years like El Capitan, High Sierra, and Catalina.

  • Oldest Sold: MacBookPro11,1-3 - Mid 2014
  • Newest Sold: MacBook8,1 - Early 2016
Model Year Released Year Discontinued
iMac14,4 Mid 2014 Late 2015
iMac15,1 Mid 2014 Late 2015
MacBook8,1 Early 2015 Early 2016
MacBookAir6,x Mid 2013 Early 2015
MacBookPro11,1-3 Late 2013 Mid 2014

Expected Hardware Dropped: macOS 13

Based on these trends, we can assume Apple could kill machines last sold in 2017-2018. This would assume many Skylake and Kaby Lake Macs, however ironically the Trash Can and the 2017 MacBook Air would still outrun death. However, this assumes Apple isn’t hasty and decided to kill them regardless.

  • Oldest Sold: MacBookPro11,5 - Late 2016
  • Newest Sold: Macmini7,1 - Late 2018
Model Year Released Year Discontinued
MacBook9,1 Early 2016 Mid 2017
MacBookPro11,4 Mid 2015 Mid 2018
MacBookPro11,5 Mid 2015 Late 2016
MacBookPro12,1 Early 2015 Mid 2017
MacBookPro13,x Late 2016 Mid 2017
iMac16,x Late 2015 Mid 2017
iMac17,1 Late 2015 Mid 2017
Macmini7,1 Late 2014 Late 2018

Expected Driver Support Dropped: macOS 13

Assuming the above list of models is accurate, we can expect to see the following hardware support dropped from macOS:

  • Intel Haswell Graphics Drivers
  • Intel Skylake Graphics Drivers

However seeing as Broadwell would still be supported through MacBookAir7,x, I doubt we’ll legitimately see the Skylake drivers be removed. Otherwise, all other hardware in the older Macs are still used in newer/supported models including GCN1-3 graphics as well as the BCM94360 series chipset.

Remaining Models

Below are models that should live at least to macOS 14, however, anything further will require info from macOS 13’s support list before we can legitimately decide what Apple plans to do.

Note that some of these models may seem prime candidates for death row in macOS 13, Apple generally likes to kill off entire series all at once so will most likely use the outlier’s age for decision

  • MacBookPro9,2 is the odd exception for lasting till late 2016 but dying with the late 2013 series.
Model Year Released Year Discontinued
MacBook10,1 Mid 2017 Mid 2019
MacBookAir7,1 Early 2015 Late 2016
MacBookAir7,2 Early 2015 Mid 2019
MacBookAir8,1 Late 2018 Mid 2019
MacBookAir8,2 Mid 2019 Early 2020
MacBookAir9,1 Early 2020 Late 2020
MacBookPro14,1 Mid 2017 Mid 2019
MacBookPro14,2/3 Mid 2017 Mid 2018
MacBookPro15,x Mid 2018 Early 2020
MacBookPro16,x Late 2019 Late 2021
iMac18,1 Mid 2017 Late 2021
iMac18,2/3 Mid 2017 Early 2019
iMac19,1 Early 2019 Mid 2020
iMac19,2 Early 2019 Early 2021
iMac20,x Mid 2020 Early 2022
iMacPro1,1 Late 2017 Early 2021
MacPro6,1 Mid 2013 Late 2019
MacPro7,1 Late 2019 N/A
Macmini8,1 Mid 2018 N/A